We're 48 days out from Election Day, and there are still so many unanswered questions. Mainly: Will the Fed decide the presidential election today? Is the Donald Trump-Pam Bondi scandal over, or is it just getting started? And why are we letting Florida anywhere near this election? Couldn't we just, you know, give them some fake ballots to play with and send them to the other room while the other 49 states hash things out?
It sounds like a Philosophy 101 thought experiment, but it's playing out today. An economic train is heading down the tracks -- Donald Trump is tied to the main line, Hillary Clinton's tied to a branch line, and the Federal Reserve is at the switch. But the Fed's job is just to keep the train moving, not worry which candidate they're running over. (Also, both candidates are criticizing the Fed the whole time, but running over both candidates isn't an option.)
At around 11 a.m. EDT today, Janet Yellen will announce if its benchmark overnight interest rate will be raised or remain unchanged. It's one of the Fed's few opportunities to raise rates this year, with the next opportunity coming just a week before the election. A rate hike might reduce the likelihood of an economic bubble (for example, higher borrowing rates would make investors less likely to engage in real-estate speculation.) But a hike also could cool off an already-slowing economy, which would damage Hillary Clinton's chances of keeping the White House in Democratic hands. Analysts expect rates to remain the same,Trump and his advisers expect the rate to stay the same, because they think the fix is in.
As for that thought experiment?Analysis by the LA Times suggests that even though the Fed swears they make their decisions independent of politics, they're less likely to raise rates in the run-up to presidential elections. Odds are decent that the switch won't be thrown today.
Sixteen years ago this November, America entrusted Florida with the 2000 presidential election. We called them the night before the election to check in and they told us they totally remembered about the election, they set an alarm for 8 a.m. sharp, and they were going to search for "how to run an election" on AskJeeves.com as soon as we got off the phone. Then four days later, they called us in a panic to say they accidentally crashed Sarasota into a ditch, several of the Florida Keys had gone missing, and there was a big gust of wind that blew all the ballots into the swamp and they'd let us know who the president was just as soon as the alligators went away.
Now here we are in 2016, and Florida is the key to everything again -- the biggest prize of the battleground states with 29 electoral votes. According to 270towin.com's electoral map, Hillary Clinton only needs it and literally any other battleground state in order to win the White House. And the latest Monmouth University poll shows Clinton leading by 5 among likely voters, 46-41%.
Among the poll's other findings:
Clinton leads among nonwhite voters (about one-third of the Florida electorate), 69-13%. Trump leads among white voters, 53-35%.
Only 24% think Donald Trump truly believes Barack Obama was born in the United States,despite Trump's statement last week
Although Trump blamed Clintonfor starting the "birther" rumors, only 35% think she did, compared with 47% who think she didn't.
"If Trump wanted to put an end to his role in the birther controversy with his statement on Friday, it does not seem to have had the intended effect," said Monmouth University Polling Institute's director, Patrick Murray.
Good news for Hillary, right? Enh. Last month, she was up by 9 in the same poll; other polls of likely voters from last week showed the race to be dead-even (New York Times/Siena) or Trump up by 4 (CNN/ORC). But if Hillary does manage to hang on to Florida, which of the other swing states is most likely to fall into her column? Right now, the most likely states are Pennsylvania (Clinton +6.2 in a four-way race), New Hampshire (Clinton +6.0) and Wisconsin (Clinton +4.4).
Oh hi, Florida. You again.
On Tuesday, Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi addressed controversysurrounding the Trump Foundation's $25,000 donation to her re-election campaign in 2013, at a time when her office was reviewing a complaint against Trump University. Her office ultimately decided not to open up a case.
“I have done nothing improper. I am a career prosecutor,” Bondi said. “I would never let any money, anyone stop what I do ... I would never, ever trade any campaign donation. That's absurd, for some type of favor to anyone."
As it turns out, the donation itself was illegal -- charities aren't allowed to donate to political candidates. So that's one improper thing. But that's probably it.
More From The Campaign Trail
New TV ad released by either the Trump campaign or a very pro-Trump kid's lemonade stand (USA TODAY OnPolitics)
Political dynast to vote for political dynast, according to a political dynast (USA TODAY OnPolitics)
Indiana indifferent about Pence, still hates snakes (Indianapolis Star)
Donald Trump Jr. compares Syrian refugees to poisoned Skittles, just in time for Halloween season (USA TODAY OnPolitics)
Marilyn Manson completely weirded out by Trump and Clinton, says it's obvious they're just seeking attention (USA TODAY OnPolitics)
Taste the rainbow of Twitter jokes -- it's #TrumpACandy (USA TODAY OnPolitics)
Expanding The Voter Rolls
Jill Stein wants to lower the voting age to 16. And at least one Hillary Clinton supporter wants to lower the voting age to "cats."
www.usatoday.com
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